Who wins and who loses? Public transfer accounts for US generations born 1850 to 2090

Abstract : Public transfer programs in industrial nations are thought to benefit the elderly through pension and health care programs at the expense of the young and future generations. However, this intergenerational picture changes if public education is also considered as a transfer program. We calculate the net present value (NPV) of benefits received minus taxes paid for US generations born 1850 to 2090. Surprisingly, all generations 1950 to 2050 are net gainers, while many current elderly are losers. Windfall gains from starting Social Security and Medicare partially offset windfall losses from starting public education, roughly consistent with the Becker-Murphy theory.
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Antoine Bommier, Ronald Lee, Timothy Miller, Stéphane Zuber. Who wins and who loses? Public transfer accounts for US generations born 1850 to 2090. Population and Development Review, Wiley-Blackwell, 2004, pp.e10969. ⟨hal-01953279⟩

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