HAL will be down for maintenance from Friday, June 10 at 4pm through Monday, June 13 at 9am. More information
Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Conference papers

Modeling Electric Vehicle Consumption Profiles for Short-Term Forecasting and Long-Term Simulation

Abstract : The growing number of electric vehicles (EV) is challenging the traditional distribution grid with a new set of consumption curves. We employ information from individual meters at charging stations that record the power drawn by an EV at high temporal resolution (i.e. every minute) to analyze and model charging habits. We identify 5 types of battery that determine the power an EV draws from the grid and its maximal capacity. In parallel, we identify 4 main clusters of charging habits. Charging habits models are then used for two applications: short-term forecasting and long-term simulation. We start by forecasting day-ahead consumption scenarios for a single EV. By summing scenarios for a fleet of EVs, we obtain probabilistic forecasts of the aggregated load, and observe that our bottom-up approach performs similarly to a machine-learning technique that directly forecasts the aggregated load. Secondly, we assess the expected impact of the additional EVs on the grid by 2030, assuming that future charging habits follow curren behavior. Although the overall load logically increases, the shape of the load is marginally modified, showing that the current network seems fairly well-suited to this evolution.
Complete list of metadata

Cited literature [26 references]  Display  Hide  Download

Contributor : Georges Kariniotakis Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Friday, December 7, 2018 - 8:02:08 PM
Last modification on : Friday, May 13, 2022 - 3:36:44 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Friday, March 8, 2019 - 4:03:13 PM


Files produced by the author(s)


  • HAL Id : hal-01948609, version 1


Alexis Gerossier, Robin Girard, George Kariniotakis. Modeling Electric Vehicle Consumption Profiles for Short-Term Forecasting and Long-Term Simulation. 11th Mediterranean Conference on Power Generation, Transmission, Distribution and Energy Conversion, MEDPOWER 2018, Nov 2018, Dubrovnik (Cavtat), Croatia. ⟨hal-01948609⟩



Record views


Files downloads