Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts

Philippe Vanhems (1, 2) , Rosette von Raesfeldt (3, 4) , René Ecochard (5, 4, 3) , Nicolas Voirin (3, 4)

1 LPE-Fondation Mérieux - Laboratoire des pathogènes émergents -- Emerging Pathogens Laboratory
2 Service d'Hygiène, Epidémiologie et Prévention [Hôpital Edouard Herriot - HCL]
3 LBBE - Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558
4 Service de Biostatistique des Hospices Civils de Lyon
5 Biostatistiques santé

The potential spread of nosocomial Ebola virus disease (EVD) in non-outbreak areas is not known. The objective was to use detailed contact data on patients and healthcare workers (HCW) to estimate emergence probability and secondary incident cases (SIC) of EVD after hospitalization of an index case with undetected EVD. Contact data were collected through RFID devices used by patients and HCW during hospital care. A "susceptible-exposed-infected" model was used. Emergence probability, ranged from 7% to 84%. A plateau around 84% was observed. Emergence probability was proportional to time exposed to the dry phase of patients with nonspecific symptoms. Nurses were at higher risk of nosocomial EVD than physicians with around 60% emergence probability in this subgroup. The risk of nosocomial EVD in non-outbreak areas might be substantial if no preventive measures are implemented when asymptomatic patients or those with mild symptoms are hospitalized.

Mots clés: Health Personnel; Hemorrhagic Fever; Ebola; Cross Infection; France; Statistical; Models; Humans; Hospitalization; Critical Care

Domaines: Immunologie; Bactériologie; Virologie

Philippe Vanhems, Rosette von Raesfeldt, René Ecochard, Nicolas Voirin. Emergence of Ebola virus disease in a french acute care setting: a simulation study based on documented inter-individual contacts. Scientific Reports, 2016, 6, pp.36301. ⟨10.1038/srep36301⟩. ⟨hal-01911047⟩