Modelagem e Simulação da Dinâmica do Zika Vírus
Résumé
Epidemiological models are consistently used as an important decision support tool for health organizations, as they can help develop and test effective disease control strategies, especially during outbreaks. Currently, one of the diseases that causes major concern to international health agencies is Zika fever, caused by the Zika virus. multiple cases of epidemic of the virus have been reported worldwide over the past two decades, in addition to being associated with the development of subsequent diseases. Brazil was one of the most affected countries, with more than 200{,}000 new probable cases occurred in 2016. In this context, the present work develops a compartmental epidemiological model to describe the behavior of the Zika Fever in the Brazilian scenario. Theoretical discussions are made to bring consistency to the model, guaranteeing you a stable solution within the observed time interval. Flexible intervals parameters are identified in the literature. Parametric studies are conducted to identify the sensitivity of the model response to its different parameters. The model is calibrated according to a dataset of the outbreak occurred in Brazil in 2016, by solving an inverse problem. At the end, with the objective of evaluating possible epidemic scenarios, additional numerical studies, conducted with the aid of the calibrated model, are presented.
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