A dynamic pharmaceuticals loads source generator

Tanguy Pouzol (1) , Yves Levi (2) , Jean-Luc Bertrand-Krajewski (1)

1 DEEP - Déchets Eaux Environnement Pollutions
2 ESE - Ecologie Systématique et Evolution

As pharmaceuticals and metabolites are assumed to reach the environment after human consumption and excretion, it is important to model their discharge in wastewater. Due to the difficulty to collect detailed data on pharmaceuticals sales and the diversity of processes influencing the fate of pharmaceuticals, modelling pharmaceutical fate is difficult and models in the literature struggle to accurately and reliably predict pharmaceuticals loads. In such a context, a new stochastic model is proposed. Pharmaceuticals loads in wastewater are predicted by modelling the discharge from sick persons in a catchment at a minute time step. Posology, time-use, metabolism and excretions are generated using different distributions. The model is tested for 9 molecules on an urban catchment (16 000 inhabitants), using monthly sales data. 24 h average samples and 24 consecutives 1 h average samples campaigns are used to assess the model performance. Results show that the model can predict with reasonable accuracy and reliability daily and hourly loads for an urban catchment.

Mots clés: Pharmaceuticals sales; Individual behaviour; Stochastic modelling

Domaines: Ingénierie de l'environnement

Tanguy Pouzol, Yves Levi, Jean-Luc Bertrand-Krajewski. A dynamic pharmaceuticals loads source generator. 11th UDM – International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling, Sep 2018, Palermo, Italy. pp.993-996. ⟨hal-01885466⟩