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Conference papers

Two-dimensional Pareto frontier forecasting for technology planning and roadmapping

Abstract : Technology evolution forecasting based on historical data processing is a useful tool for quantitative analysis in technology planning and roadmapping. While previous efforts focused mainly on one-dimensional forecasting, real technical systems require the evaluation of multiple and conflicting figures of merit at the same time, such as cost and performance. This paper presents a methodology for technology forecasting based on Pareto (efficient) frontier estimation algorithms and multiple regressions in presence of at least two conflicting figures of merits. A tool was developed on the basis of the approach presented in this paper. The methodology is illustrated with a case study from the automotive industry. The paper also shows the validation of the methodology and the estimation of the forecast accuracy adopting a backward testing procedure.
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Submitted on : Thursday, May 31, 2018 - 11:41:05 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, September 15, 2021 - 9:02:03 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Saturday, September 1, 2018 - 1:08:43 PM

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  • HAL Id : hal-01804001, version 1
  • OATAO : 20073

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Ilya yuskevich, Rob A. Vingerhoeds, Alessandro Golkar. Two-dimensional Pareto frontier forecasting for technology planning and roadmapping. 2018 Systems Conferences (Syscon), Apr 2018, Vancouvre, Canada. pp. 560-566. ⟨hal-01804001⟩

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