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Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change

Abstract : Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change.
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https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01803740
Contributor : Francois Rousset <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, May 30, 2018 - 6:10:48 PM
Last modification on : Monday, March 29, 2021 - 2:47:40 PM

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Robin Aguilée, Gaël Raoul, François Rousset, Ophélie Ronce. Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America , National Academy of Sciences, 2016, 113 (39), pp.E5741 - E5748. ⟨10.1073/pnas.1607612113⟩. ⟨hal-01803740⟩

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