Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds.

Katharine Keogan 1, * Francis Daunt 2 Sarah Wanless 3 Richard A. Phillips 4 Craig A. Walling 1 Philippa Agnew 5 David G. Ainley 6 Tycho Anker-Nilssen 7 Grant Ballard 8 Robert T. Barrett 9 Kerry J. Barton 10 Claus Bech 11 Peter Becker 12 Per-Arvid Berglund 13 Loïc Bollache 14 Alexander L. Bond 15, 16 Sandra Bouwhuis 12 Russell W. Bradley 17 Zofia M. Burr 18 Kees Camphuysen 19 Paulo Catry 20 André Chiaradia 21, 22 Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard 7 Richard Cuthbert 23 Nina Dehnhard 24 Sébastien Descamps 25 Tony Diamond 26 George Divoky Hugh Drummond 27 Katie M. Dugger 28 Michael J. Dunn 4 Louise Emmerson 29 Kjell Einar Erikstad 30, 31 Jérôme Fort 32 William Fraser 33 Meritxell Genovart 34 Olivier Gilg 35 Jacob González-Solís 36 José Pedro Granadeiro 37 David Grémillet 38, 39 Jannik Hansen 40 Sveinn A. Hanssen 41 Mike Harris 2 April Hedd 42 Jefferson Hinke 43 José Manuel Igual 44 Jaime Jahncke 8 Ian Jones 16 Peter J. Kappes 45 Johannes Lang 46 Magdalene Langset 41 Amélie Lescroël 38 Svein-Håkon Lorentsen 7 Phil O’b. Lyver 10 Mark Mallory 47 Børge Moe 48 William A. Montevecchi 49 David Monticelli 50 Carolyn Mostello 51 Mark Newell 2 Lisa Nicholson 52 Ian Nisbet 53 Olof Olsson 54 Daniel Oro 55 Vivian Pattison 56 Maud Poisbleau 57 Tanya Pyk 58 Flavio Quintana 59 Jaime A. Ramos 60 Raül Ramos 61 Tone Kirstin Reiertsen 62 Cristina Rodríguez 27 Peter Ryan 63 Ana Sanz-Aguilar 55 Niels M. Schmidt 64 Paula Shannon 65 Benoit Sittler 66 Colin Southwell 29 Christopher Surman 52 Walter S. Svagelj 67 Wayne Trivelpiece Pete Warzybok 17 Yutaka Watanuki 68 Henri Weimerskirch 69 Peter R. Wilson 70 Andrew G. Wood 4 Albert B. Phillimore 1, * Sue Lewis 1, 2, *
* Auteur correspondant
Abstract : Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity1, and is often sensitive to climatic conditions2. Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey3. This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers4. However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction5. Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (−0.020 days yr−1) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (−0.272 days °C−1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources2.
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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01773957
Contributeur : Rémi Laffont <>
Soumis le : lundi 23 avril 2018 - 12:18:35
Dernière modification le : mardi 11 décembre 2018 - 16:34:02

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Katharine Keogan, Francis Daunt, Sarah Wanless, Richard A. Phillips, Craig A. Walling, et al.. Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds.. Nature Climate Change, Nature Publishing Group, 2018, 8 (4), pp.313-318. 〈https://www-nature-com/articles/s41558-018-0115-z〉. 〈10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z〉. 〈hal-01773957〉

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