Urban hydrologic trend analysis based on rainfall and runoff data analysis and conceptual model calibration

Abstract : Urban stormwater is a major cause of urban flooding and natural water pollution. It is therefore important to assess any hydrologic trends in urban catchments for stormwater management and planning. This study addresses urban hydrological trend analysis by examining trends in variables that characterize hydrological processes. The original and modified Mann-Kendall methods are applied to trend detection in two French catchments, i.e., Chassieu and La Lechere, based on approximately one decade of data from local monitoring programs. In both catchments, no trend is found in the major hydrological process driver (i.e., rainfall variables), whereas increasing trends are detected in runoff flow rates. As a consequence, the runoff coefficients tend to increase during the study period, probably due to growing imperviousness with the local urbanization process. In addition, conceptual urban rainfall-runoff model parameters, which are identified via model calibration with an event based approach, are examined. Trend detection results indicate that there is no trend in the time of concentration in Chassieu, whereas a decreasing trend is present in La Lechere, which, however, needs to be validated with additional data. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the original Mann-Kendall method is not sensitive to a few noisy values in the data series.
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S. Sun, S. Barraud, F. Branger, I. Braud, H. Castebrunet. Urban hydrologic trend analysis based on rainfall and runoff data analysis and conceptual model calibration. Hydrological Processes, Wiley, 2017, 31 (6), pp.1349-1359. ⟨10.1002/hyp.11109⟩. ⟨hal-01710641⟩

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