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Probabilistic modelling of the concept of anticipation in aviation

Ephraim Suhir 1 Sami Lini 2 Christophe Bey 2 Jean-Marc Salotti 2 Sylvain Hourlier 3 Bernard Claverie 4
2 COGNITIQUE
IMS - Laboratoire de l'intégration, du matériau au système
3 COGNITIQUE
IMS - Laboratoire de l'intégration, du matériau au système, Equipe Cognitique & Ingénierie Humaine - IMS (UMR 5218)
Abstract : Two problems concerning anticipation effort as an important cognitive resource for improved avionics safety are addressed: (1) assessment of the probability that the random actual ('subjective') anticipation time is below the (also random) available ('objective') time and (2) evaluation of the likelihood of success of the random short-term anticipation from the predetermined (non-random) long-term anticipation. Unlike the traditional statistical approach, when experimentations are done first and are followed by statistical analyses, our novel concept suggests that probabilistic predictive modelling is done first and is followed by experimentation. The concept proceeds from the fundamental understanding that nobody and nothing is perfect and that the difference between a success and a failure in a particular effort, a situation, or a mission is, in effect, 'merely' the difference in the level of the never-zero probability of failure.
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Submitted on : Monday, February 12, 2018 - 1:10:02 PM
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Ephraim Suhir, Sami Lini, Christophe Bey, Jean-Marc Salotti, Sylvain Hourlier, et al.. Probabilistic modelling of the concept of anticipation in aviation. Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science, Taylor & Francis, 2013, 16 (1), pp.69 - 85. ⟨10.1080/1463922X.2014.895878⟩. ⟨hal-01672728⟩

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