Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods
Bing Liu
(1, 2)
,
Senthold Asseng
(2)
,
Christoph Müller
(3)
,
Frank Ewert
(4, 5)
,
Joshua Elliott
(6, 7)
,
David B. Lobell
(8)
,
Pierre Martre
(9)
,
Alex C. Ruane
(10, 6)
,
Daniel Wallach
(11)
,
James W. Jones
(2)
,
Cynthia Rosenzweig
(6, 10)
,
Pramod K. Aggarwal
(12)
,
Phillip D. Alderman
(13)
,
Jakarat Anothai
(14)
,
Bruno Basso
(15, 16)
,
Christian Biernath
(17)
,
Davide Cammarano
(18)
,
Andrew J. Challinor
(19, 20)
,
Delphine Deryng
(6, 7)
,
Giacomo de Sanctis
(21)
,
Jordi Doltra
(22)
,
Elias Fereres
(23)
,
Christian Folberth
(24, 25)
,
Margarita Garcia-Vila
(23)
,
Sebastian Gayler
(26)
,
Gerrit Hoogenboom
(2, 27)
,
Leslie A. Hunt
(28)
,
Roberto C. Izaurralde
(29, 30)
,
Mohamed Jabloun
(31)
,
Curtis D. Jones
(29)
,
Kurt Christian Kersebaum
(5)
,
Bruce A. Kimball
(32)
,
Ann-Kristin Koehler
(19)
,
Soora Kumar Naresh
(33)
,
Claas Nendel
(34)
,
Garry O'Leary
(35)
,
Jørgen E. Olesen
(31)
,
Michael J. Ottman
(36)
,
Taru Palosuo
(37)
,
P. V. Vara Prasad
(23)
,
Eckart Priesack
(38)
,
Thomas A. M. Pugh
(39, 40, 41)
,
Matthew Reynolds
(42)
,
Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
(4, 43)
,
Reimund P. Rötter
(44, 45)
,
Erwin Schmid
(46)
,
Mikhail A. Semenov
(47)
,
Lurii Shcherbak
(15, 16)
,
Elke Stehfest
(48)
,
Claudio O. Stockle
(49)
,
Pierre Stratonovitch
(47)
,
Thilo Streck
(26)
,
Iwan Supit
(50)
,
Fulu Tao
(51, 37)
,
Peter J. Thorburn
(52)
,
Katharina Waha
(52, 3)
,
Gerard W. Wall
(32)
,
Enli Wang
(52)
,
Jeffrey W. White
(53)
,
Joost Wolf
(54)
,
Zhigan Zhao
(52, 55)
,
Yan Zhu
(1)
1
National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production
2 UF|ABE - Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
3 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
4 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
5 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
6 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]
7 Computation Institute
8 Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment
9 GDEC - Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
10 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
11 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
12 CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Borlaug Institute for South Asia, CIMMYT
13 Department of Plant and Soil Sciences
14 Department of Plant Science, Faculty of Natural Resources
15 Department of Geological Sciences
16 KBS - W. K. Kellogg Biological Station
17 IBOE - Institute of Soil Ecology [Neuherberg]
18 The James Hutton Institute
19 ICAS - Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
20 CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
21 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
22 Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre
23 Department of Agronomy
24 Department of Geography
25 Ecosystem Services and Management Program
26 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
27 AgWeatherNet Program
28 Department of Plant Agriculture
29 Department of Geographical Sciences
30 Texas A and M AgriLife Research
31 Department of Agroecology
32 US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center
33 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
34 Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
35 Landscape & Water Sciences
36 The School of Plant Sciences
37 LUKE - Natural Resources Institute Finland
38 Institute of Ecology, German Research Center for Environmental Health
39 IMK-IFU - Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung
40 School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Birmingham]
41 BIFoR - Birmingham Institute of Forest Research
42 CIMMYT - International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
43 Center for Development Research (ZEF)
44 Environmental Impacts Group
45 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
46 BOKU - Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche]
47 Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research
48 Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
49 Department of Biological Systems Engineering
50 PPS, WSG and CALM
51 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
52 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra]
53 USDA-ARS, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center
54 PPS, WSG and CALM
55 CAU - China Agricultural University
2 UF|ABE - Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
3 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
4 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
5 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
6 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]
7 Computation Institute
8 Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment
9 GDEC - Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
10 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
11 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
12 CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Borlaug Institute for South Asia, CIMMYT
13 Department of Plant and Soil Sciences
14 Department of Plant Science, Faculty of Natural Resources
15 Department of Geological Sciences
16 KBS - W. K. Kellogg Biological Station
17 IBOE - Institute of Soil Ecology [Neuherberg]
18 The James Hutton Institute
19 ICAS - Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
20 CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
21 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
22 Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre
23 Department of Agronomy
24 Department of Geography
25 Ecosystem Services and Management Program
26 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
27 AgWeatherNet Program
28 Department of Plant Agriculture
29 Department of Geographical Sciences
30 Texas A and M AgriLife Research
31 Department of Agroecology
32 US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center
33 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
34 Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
35 Landscape & Water Sciences
36 The School of Plant Sciences
37 LUKE - Natural Resources Institute Finland
38 Institute of Ecology, German Research Center for Environmental Health
39 IMK-IFU - Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung
40 School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Birmingham]
41 BIFoR - Birmingham Institute of Forest Research
42 CIMMYT - International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
43 Center for Development Research (ZEF)
44 Environmental Impacts Group
45 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
46 BOKU - Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche]
47 Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research
48 Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
49 Department of Biological Systems Engineering
50 PPS, WSG and CALM
51 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
52 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra]
53 USDA-ARS, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center
54 PPS, WSG and CALM
55 CAU - China Agricultural University
Bing Liu
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 757516
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0222-2531
Christoph Müller
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772079
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2234-6902
Frank Ewert
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 968227
Pierre Martre
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 183362
- IdHAL : pierre-martre
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7419-6558
- IdRef : 163589194
James W. Jones
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 958970
Andrew J. Challinor
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 968229
Delphine Deryng
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772077
- ORCID : 0000-0001-6214-7241
Christian Folberth
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 783789
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6738-5238
Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 784208
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1555-0537
Claas Nendel
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772081
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7608-9097
Mikhail A. Semenov
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 774453
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1561-7113
Lurii Shcherbak
- Fonction : Auteur
Résumé
The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)