Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

Chuang Zhao 1 Bing Liu 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Shilong Piao 1, 7, 8 Xuhui Wang 1 David B. Lobell 9 Yao Huang 10 Mengtian Huang 1 Yitong Yao 1 Simona Bassu 11 Philippe Ciais 12, 13, 14 Jean-Louis Durand 15 Joshua Elliott 16, 17 Frank Ewert 18, 19 Ivan A. Janssens 20 Tao Li 21 Erda Lin 22 Qiang Liu 1 Pierre Martres 23 Christoph Müller 24 Shushi Peng 1 Josep Penuelas 25, 26 Alex C. Ruane 27, 17 Daniel Wallach 28 Tao Wang 7, 8 Donghai Wu 1 Zhuo Liu 1 Yan Zhu 2, 3, 4, 5 Zaichun Zhu 1 Senthold Asseng 6
Abstract : Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop-and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
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Chuang Zhao, Bing Liu, Shilong Piao, Xuhui Wang, David B. Lobell, et al.. Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America , National Academy of Sciences, 2017, 114 (35), pp.9326-9331. ⟨10.1073/pnas.1701762114⟩. ⟨hal-01594919⟩



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