Rationally Biased Learning

Michel de Lara (1)

1 CERMICS - Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche en Mathématiques et Calcul Scientifique

Are human perception and decision biases grounded in a form of rationality? You return to your camp after hunting or gathering. You see the grass moving. You do not know the probability that a snake is in the grass. Should you cross the grass — at the risk of being bitten by a snake — or make a long, hence costly, detour? Based on this storyline, we consider a rational decision maker maximizing expected discounted utility with learning. We show that his optimal behavior displays three biases: status quo, salience, overestimation of small probabilities. Biases can be the product of rational behavior.

Mots clés: status quo bias; salience bias; overestimation of small probabilities; optimal behavior

Domaines: Economies et finances; Optimisation et contrôle [math.OC]

Michel de Lara. Rationally Biased Learning. 2017. ⟨hal-01581982v1⟩