Robust Viability Analysis of a Controlled Epidemiological Model

Lilian Sofia Salcedo Sepulveda (1) , Michel de Lara (2)

1 UAO - Universidad Autónoma de Occidente
2 CERMICS - Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche en Mathématiques et Calcul Scientifique

Managing infectious diseases is a world public health issue, plagued by uncertainties. In this paper, we analyze the problem of viable control of a dengue outbreak under uncertainty. For this purpose, we develop a controlled Ross-Macdonald model in discrete time, with mosquito vector control by fumigation and with uncertainties affecting the dynamics. The robust viability kernel is the set of all initial states such that there exists at least a strategy of insecticide spraying which guarantees that the number of infected people remains below a threshold, for all times, and whatever the sequences of uncertainties (scenarios). Having chosen three nested subsets of uncertainties — a deterministic one (without uncertainty), a medium one and a large one — we can measure the incidence of the uncertainties on the size of the kernel, in particular on its reduction with respect to the de-terministic case. The numerical results show that the viability kernel without uncertainties is highly sensitive to the variability of parameters — here the biting rate, the probability of infection to mosquitoes and humans, and the proportion of female mosquitoes per person. So the robust viability kernel is a possible tool to reveal the importance of uncertainties regarding epidemics control.

Mots clés: epidemics control; viability; uncertainty and robustness; Ross-Macdonald model; dengue

Domaines: Optimisation et contrôle [math.OC]; Biodiversité et Ecologie; Maladies infectieuses

Lilian Sofia Salcedo Sepulveda, Michel de Lara. Robust Viability Analysis of a Controlled Epidemiological Model. 2018. ⟨hal-01577796v2⟩