Spatial Validation of Land Use Change Models Using Multiple Assessment Techniques: A Case Study of Transition Potential Models

Abstract : Using land use and cover change (LUCC) models for the urban growth planning, environmental assessment, and decision-making needs the establishment of an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. The objective of this research is to explore the importance of using multiple assess- ment techniques in order to fairly evaluate the performance of land use models. An application is conducted by using the Land Change Modeler for Ecological Sustainability (LCM) which is an empirical and transition potential model. LCM is applied to model the agricultural to developed areas transition in Rennes metropolitan area (France). The land demand is estimated using the Markov Chain model; whereas, the tran- sition potential map is implemented using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP) method based on historical changes and driving variables. The model performance is assessed based on a variety of the most commonly used val- idation techniques. At the study area level, the correctness and disagreement analysis shows that LCM performs better at predicting the amount than the allocation of developed areas. Additionally, landscape metrics reveal that LCM tends to pre- dict a fragmented urban form, which seems evident because of the large number of the individual urban patches. At the mu- nicipality level, the error budget analysis shows that the model performance, which varies highly between different subareas, needs to be improved. Moreover, the cross-tabulation between the transition potential map and both the observed and the predicted agricultural to developed areas transitions reveals that the order of the transition potential values does not per- fectly fit the observed change; whereas, the predicted change is not solely limited to areas with high potential.
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Soumis le : mardi 18 juillet 2017 - 13:42:36
Dernière modification le : mercredi 25 octobre 2017 - 12:22:03

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R. Aguejdad, Thomas Houet, Laurence Hubert-Moy. Spatial Validation of Land Use Change Models Using Multiple Assessment Techniques: A Case Study of Transition Potential Models. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2017, 〈https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10666-017-9564-4〉. 〈10.1007%2Fs10666-017-9564-4〉. 〈hal-01561101〉

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