Causality Analysis Between Climatic Factors And Dengue Fever Using The Granger Causality

Nguyen Hoang Pham (1, 2) , Jean Daniel Zucker (3, 1, 2) , Marc Choisy (4) , Ho Tuong Vinh (2, 1)

1 UMMISCO - Unité de modélisation mathématique et informatique des systèmes complexes [Bondy]
2 IRD [France-Nord] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
3 ICAN - Unité de Recherche sur les Maladies Cardiovasculaires, du Métabolisme et de la Nutrition = Research Unit on Cardiovascular and Metabolic Diseases
4 MIVEGEC - Maladies infectieuses et vecteurs : écologie, génétique, évolution et contrôle

Dengue is a mosquito-borne tropical disease caused by one of the four serotypes of dengue virus. There are about 2,5 billion people living in endemic areas. The potential influence of environmental and climatic factors on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases are expected in many situations but the exact real influences of climatic variables remain uncertain in most of the cases. In the present study, we applied the Granger causality to analyze the relation between climatic variables and the monthly incidences of dengue syndromes in Vietnam for 64 provinces from 1994 to 2010. The experimental results shows a close relationship between climatic factors and dengue incidence in each province and their neighbourhoods.

Mots clés: dengue fever; Granger causality; climatic drivers; Vietnam

Domaines: Statistiques [stat]; Santé publique et épidémiologie; Santé; Maladies infectieuses

Nguyen Hoang Pham, Jean Daniel Zucker, Marc Choisy, Ho Tuong Vinh. Causality Analysis Between Climatic Factors And Dengue Fever Using The Granger Causality. 12th IEEE RIVF Conference on Computing and Communication Technologies (RIVF 2016), Nov 2016, Ha Noi, Vietnam. ⟨10.1109/RIVF.2016.7800268⟩. ⟨hal-01548254⟩