Zika virus in Brazil: calibration of an epidemic model for 2016 outbreak

Eber Dantas (1) , Michel Tosin (1) , Americo Cunha Jr (1)

1 UERJ - Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Rio de Janeiro State University [Brazil] = Université d'État de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil]

This work deals with the development and calibration of an epidemic model to describe the 2016 outbreak of Zika virus in Brazil. A mathematical model with 8 differential equations and 7 parameters is employed. Nominal values for the model parameters are estimated from the literature. An inverse problem associated to the model identification is formulated and solved. The calibrated model obtained presents realistic parameters and returns reasonable predictions, with the curve shape similar to the outbreak evolution and peak value close to the maximum number of new cases of infected people during 2016.

Mots clés: nonlinear dynamics; SEIR epidemic model; Zika virus dynamics; model calibration; system identification; mathematical biology

Domaines: Systèmes dynamiques [math.DS]; Bio-Informatique, Biologie Systémique [q-bio.QM]; Santé publique et épidémiologie; Statistiques [math.ST]

Eber Dantas, Michel Tosin, Americo Cunha Jr. Zika virus in Brazil: calibration of an epidemic model for 2016 outbreak. XXXVII Congresso Nacional de Matemática Aplicada e Computacional (CNMAC 2017), Sep 2017, São José dos Campos, Brazil. ⟨10.5540/03.2018.006.01.0460⟩. ⟨hal-01531847⟩