About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy (application for France, 1980-1997)

Louis de Mesnard (1)

1 LATEC - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Techniques Economiques [UMR 5118]

This note indicates that the method of output coincidence for forecasts used to determine if sectors are demand-driven or supply-driven in an input-output framework mixes two effects, the structural effect (choosing between demand and supply driven models) and the effect of an exogenous factor (final demand or added-value). The note recalls that another method is possible, the comparison of the stability of technical and allocation coefficients, generalized by the biproportional filter: if for a sector, after biproportional filtering, column coefficients are more stable than row coefficients, then this sector is declared as not supply-driven (but one cannot decide that it is demand-driven anyway), and conversely.

Mots clés: Biproportion; Change; Demand; Economic theory; Economics; Management; Input-output; Management economics; RAS; Supply

Mots clés: Gestion; Economie

Domaines: Economies et finances

Louis de Mesnard. About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy (application for France, 1980-1997). [Research Report] Laboratoire d'analyse et de techniques économiques(LATEC). 2000, 21 p., Table, ref. bib. : 4 p. ⟨hal-01526521⟩