A mathematical analysis about Zika virus outbreak in Rio de Janeiro

Eber Dantas (1) , Michel Tosin (1) , João Peterson (1) , Vinicius Lopes (1) , Americo Cunha Jr (1)

1 UERJ - Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Rio de Janeiro State University [Brazil] = Université d'État de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil]

This work deals with the calibration of SEIR epidemic model for Zika virus outbreak, in Rio de Janeiro, occurred in 2016, based on similar numerical analysis applied for disease's evolution in French Polyne-sia islands. Demographical increasing or decreasing is not considered. Vector is assumed to be infected for it's all lifespan. Model parameters fitting follows an empirical process, by comparison of obtained results with that in Polynesia case study, featuring as satisfactory the values that best reproduce model evolution in Rio de Janeiro scenario.

Mots clés: nonlinear dynamics; mathematical biology; model calibration; SEIR epidemic model; Zika outbreak in Rio de Janeiro

Domaines: Bio-Informatique, Biologie Systémique [q-bio.QM]; Science non linéaire [physics]; Statistiques [math.ST]; Santé publique et épidémiologie

Eber Dantas, Michel Tosin, João Peterson, Vinicius Lopes, Americo Cunha Jr. A mathematical analysis about Zika virus outbreak in Rio de Janeiro. Journal of Computational Interdisciplinary Sciences, 2018, 9, pp.135. ⟨10.6062/jcis.2018.09.01.0135⟩. ⟨hal-01471302⟩