Changement climatique et risques côtiers dans les îles tropicales

Abstract : Based on a literature review, this article analyses the implications of climate change on the evolution of coastal risks, namely coastal erosion and marine inundation, in small tropical islands. Examination of theoretical knowledge and available instrumental data combined with case studies demonstrate that climate change impacts are and will continue to be highly variable in the future both between island regions and from one island to another. Based on the analysis of the spatial variability of climate-related and human-induced pressures and their implications on current and future coastal risks, the author shows that the trajectories of vulnerability in both mountainous and reef islands are highly differentiated. Her findings from an updated review and in-depth analysis of available case studies bring into relief the diversified vulnerability profiles of reef islands, highlighting the key insights brought by recent studies. This paper outlines recent progress in the identification of the drivers controlling change in small islands and the implications of their interactions on the differentiation of vulnerability profiles. Beyond this, it analyses the factors constraining our capacity not only to detect change in small islands, but also to attribute observed changes to climate change. The constraints posed by climate variability and human interference with natural processes are more particularly discussed. Finally, at the crossroads of theoretical and empirical knowledge, this article proposes a first typology of the chains of impact of climate change in reef islands.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 - 2:47:12 PM
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Virginie Duvat. Changement climatique et risques côtiers dans les îles tropicales. Annales de géographie, Armand Colin, 2015, 705, pp.541-566. ⟨hal-01445949⟩

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