Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of functional risk curves based on Gaussian processes

Bertrand Iooss (1, 2) , Loïc Le Gratiet (2)

1 GdR MASCOT-NUM - Méthodes d'Analyse Stochastique des Codes et Traitements Numériques
2 EDF R&D MRI - Management des Risques Industriels

A functional risk curve gives the probability of an undesirable event in function of the value of a critical parameter of a considered physical system. In several applica-tive situations, this curve is built using phe-nomenological numerical models which simulate complex physical phenomena. Facing to cpu-time expensive numerical models, we propose to use the Gaussian process model to build functional risk curve. An algorithm is given to provide confidence bounds due to this approximation. Sensitivity analysis of the model random input parameters on the functional risk curve is also studied. As important information is given by new sensitivity indices (called PLI) allowing to understand the effect of misjudgment on the input parameters' probability density functions.

Domaines: Statistiques [math.ST]

Bertrand Iooss, Loïc Le Gratiet. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of functional risk curves based on Gaussian processes. 2016. ⟨hal-01357005v1⟩