Large deviation principle for epidemic models

Etienne Pardoux (1) , Brice Samegni-Kepgnou (1)

1 I2M - Institut de Mathématiques de Marseille

We consider a general class of epidemic models obtained by applying the random time changes of Ethier and Kurtz (2005) to a collection of Poisson processes and we show the large deviation principle for such models. We generalise the approach followed by Dolgoarshinnykh (2009) in the case of the SIR epidemic model. Thanks to an additional assumption which is satisfied in many examples, we simplify the recent work of Kratz and Pardoux (2017).

Domaines: Mathématiques [math]; Probabilités [math.PR]

Etienne Pardoux, Brice Samegni-Kepgnou. Large deviation principle for epidemic models. Journal of Applied Probability, 2017, 54 (3), pp.905-920. ⟨10.1017/jpr.2017.41⟩. ⟨hal-01330256⟩