Wind Storm Risk Management : Sensitivity of Return Period Calculations and Spread on the Territory

Abstract : Models and forecasts of damage from wind storms are a major issue for insurance companies. In this article, we focus on the calculation sensitivity of return periods for extreme events. Numerous elements come into play, such as data quality (location of insured buildings, weather report homogeneity), missing updates (history of insurance portfolios, change of ground roughness, climate change), the evolution of the model after an unprecedented event such as Lothar in Europe and temporal aggregation (events defined through blocks of 2 or 3 days or blocks of one week). Another important aspect concerns storm trajectories, which could change due to global warming or sweep larger areas. We here partition the French territory into 6 storm zones depending on extreme wind correlation to test several scenarios. We use a storm index defined in \cite{Ma} to show the difficulties met to obtain reliable results on extreme events.
Type de document :
Pré-publication, Document de travail
2016
Liste complète des métadonnées

Littérature citée [27 références]  Voir  Masquer  Télécharger

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01299692
Contributeur : Alexandre Mornet <>
Soumis le : mardi 12 avril 2016 - 14:21:46
Dernière modification le : mardi 23 mai 2017 - 11:21:27
Document(s) archivé(s) le : mercredi 13 juillet 2016 - 10:28:01

Fichier

Article HAL.pdf
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-01299692, version 1

Collections

Citation

Alexandre Mornet, Thomas Opitz, Michel Luzi, Stéphane Loisel. Wind Storm Risk Management : Sensitivity of Return Period Calculations and Spread on the Territory. 2016. 〈hal-01299692〉

Partager

Métriques

Consultations de la notice

140

Téléchargements de fichiers

308