Travel time forecasting from clustered time series via optimal fusion strategy

Andres Ladino Lopez 1 Alain Kibangou 1 Hassen Fourati 1 Carlos Canudas de Wit 1
1 NECS - Networked Controlled Systems
Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes, GIPSA-DA - Département Automatique
Abstract : This paper addresses the problem of travel time forecasting within a highway. Several measurements are captured describing travel times for multiple origin-destination (OD) pairs. A network model is then proposed to infer travel time between origin and destination based on a reduced number of states. The forecast strategy is based on current day and historical data. Historical data is organized into several clusters. For each cluster, a predictor is designed based on the Kalman filtering strategy. Then these predictions are fused, in a best linear unbiased estimation sense, in order to get the best prediction. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated using traffic data from the South Ring of the Grenoble city in France.
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Andres Ladino Lopez, Alain Kibangou, Hassen Fourati, Carlos Canudas de Wit. Travel time forecasting from clustered time series via optimal fusion strategy. 15th European Control Conference (ECC 2016), Jun 2016, Aalborg, Denmark. ⟨10.1109/ECC.2016.7810623⟩. ⟨hal-01296525⟩

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