A. Et, A. ?age-dependent, and . Extinction, Sysbio-syv065.tex] Page: 16 1?16 16 SYSTEMATIC BIOLOGY unparalleled opportunity to gain insight into the biological factors shaping macroevolutionary dynamics. SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS Data available from the Dryad Digital Repository: http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.7894h. FUNDING This work was supported by); the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant PZ00P3_136820 to T, CNRS and Collège de France through the Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Biology (A.L.); and the French national research agency (ANR, grant MANEGE 'Modèles Aléatoires en Écologie, Génétique et Évolution' 09-BLAN-0215 to A.L.), pp.7-26, 2015.

H. Akaike, A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, vol.19, issue.6, pp.716-723, 1974.
DOI : 10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705

M. Blum and O. François, Which Random Processes Describe the Tree of Life? A Large-Scale Study of Phylogenetic Tree Imbalance, Systematic Biology, vol.55, issue.4, pp.685-691, 2006.
DOI : 10.1080/10635150600889625
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00370261

D. H. Colless, Phylogenetics: The Theory and Practice of Phylogenetic Systematics., Systematic Zoology, vol.31, issue.1, pp.100-104, 1982.
DOI : 10.2307/2413420

N. A. Doran, A. J. Arnold, W. C. Parker, and F. W. Huffer, IS EXTINCTION AGE DEPENDENT?, PALAIOS, vol.21, issue.6, pp.571-579, 2006.
DOI : 10.2110/palo.2006.p06-055r

A. Drummond and A. Rambaut, BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees, BMC Evolutionary Biology, vol.7, issue.1, p.214, 2007.
DOI : 10.1186/1471-2148-7-214

E. E. Goldberg and B. Igi´cigi´c, TEMPO AND MODE IN PLANT BREEDING SYSTEM EVOLUTION, Evolution, vol.19, issue.12, pp.3701-3709, 2012.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1558-5646.2012.01730.x

E. E. Goldberg, J. R. Kohn, R. Lande, K. A. Robertson, S. A. Smith et al., Species Selection Maintains Self-Incompatibility, Science, vol.330, issue.6003, pp.493-495, 2010.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1194513

O. Hagen, K. Hartmann, M. Steel, and T. Stadler, Age-Dependent Speciation Can Explain the Shape of Empirical Phylogenies, Systematic Biology, vol.64, issue.3, pp.432-440, 2015.
DOI : 10.1093/sysbio/syv001

O. Hagen and T. Stadler, TreeSimGM: simulating phylogenetic trees under a general model Available from: URL http://cran.r-project, 2013.

K. Hartmann, D. Wong, and T. Stadler, Sampling Trees from Evolutionary Models, Systematic Biology, vol.59, issue.4, pp.465-476, 2010.
DOI : 10.1093/sysbio/syq026

P. H. Harvey, R. M. May, and S. Nee, Phylogenies Without Fossils, Evolution, vol.48, issue.3, pp.523-529, 1994.
DOI : 10.2307/2410466

W. Jetz, G. H. Thomas, J. B. Joy, K. Hartmann, and A. O. Mooers, The global diversity of birds in space and time, Nature, vol.20, issue.7424, pp.444-448, 2012.
DOI : 10.1038/nature11631

M. T. Johnson, R. G. Fitzjohn, S. D. Smith, M. D. Rausher, and S. P. Otto, LOSS OF SEXUAL RECOMBINATION AND SEGREGATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED DIVERSIFICATION IN EVENING PRIMROSES, Evolution, vol.169, issue.11, pp.3230-3240, 2011.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1558-5646.2011.01378.x

A. Lambert, H. K. Alexander, and T. Stadler, Phylogenetic analysis accounting for age-dependent death and sampling with applications to epidemics, Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol.352, pp.60-70, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.02.031
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00834706

A. Lambert and T. Stadler, Birth???death models and coalescent point processes: The shape and probability of reconstructed phylogenies, Theoretical Population Biology, vol.90, pp.113-128, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.tpb.2013.10.002
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00936070

A. Lambert, The contour of splitting trees is a L??vy process, The Annals of Probability, vol.38, issue.1, pp.348-395, 2010.
DOI : 10.1214/09-AOP485

L. H. Liow, L. Van-valen, and N. C. Stenseth, Red Queen: from populations to taxa and communities, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol.26, issue.7, pp.349-358, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.tree.2011.03.016

A. R. Mccune, On the Fallacy of Constant Extinction Rates, Evolution, vol.36, issue.3, pp.610-614, 1982.
DOI : 10.2307/2408106

D. Moen and H. Morlon, Why does diversification slow down?, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol.29, issue.4, pp.190-197, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.tree.2014.01.010

H. Morlon, T. L. Parsons, and J. Plotkin, Reconciling molecular phylogenies with the fossil record, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA, pp.16327-16332, 2011.
DOI : 10.1073/pnas.1102543108

H. Morlon, Phylogenetic approaches for studying diversification, Ecology Letters, vol.451, issue.4, pp.508-525, 2014.
DOI : 10.1111/ele.12251

H. J. Muller, The relation of recombination to mutational advance, Mutation Research/Fundamental and Molecular Mechanisms of Mutagenesis, vol.1, issue.1, pp.2-9, 1964.
DOI : 10.1016/0027-5107(64)90047-8

S. Nee, E. C. Holmes, R. M. May, and P. H. Harvey, Extinction Rates can be Estimated from Molecular Phylogenies, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol.344, issue.1307, pp.77-82, 1994.
DOI : 10.1098/rstb.1994.0054

S. Nee, R. M. May, and P. H. Harvey, The Reconstructed Evolutionary Process, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol.344, issue.1309, pp.305-311, 1994.
DOI : 10.1098/rstb.1994.0068

P. N. Pearson, Investigating age???dependency of species extinction rates using dynamic survivorship analysis, Historical Biology, vol.1, issue.2, pp.119-136, 1995.
DOI : 10.1038/305218a0

L. Popovic, Asymptotic genealogy of a critical branching process, The Annals of Applied Probability, vol.14, issue.4, pp.2120-2148, 2004.
DOI : 10.1214/105051604000000486

R. A. Pyron and F. T. Burbrink, Phylogenetic estimates of speciation and extinction rates for testing ecological and evolutionary hypotheses, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol.28, issue.12, pp.729-736, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.tree.2013.09.007

D. M. Raup, Taxonomic survivorship curves and Van Valen's Law, Paleobiology, vol.1, issue.01, pp.82-96, 1975.
DOI : 10.1214/aoms/1177698416

S. H. Rice, Evolutionary theory: mathematical and conceptual foundations, 2004.

R. E. Ricklefs, GLOBAL VARIATION IN THE DIVERSIFICATION RATE OF PASSERINE BIRDS, Ecology, vol.87, issue.10, pp.2468-2478, 2006.
DOI : 10.1086/380747

T. Stadler, On incomplete sampling under birth???death models and connections to the sampling-based coalescent, Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol.261, issue.1, pp.58-66, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.07.018

T. Stadler, Mammalian phylogeny reveals recent diversification rate shifts, Proc. Natl Acad. Sci, pp.6187-6192, 2011.
DOI : 10.1073/pnas.1016876108

T. Stadler, How Can We Improve Accuracy of Macroevolutionary Rate Estimates?, Systematic Biology, vol.62, issue.2, pp.321-329
DOI : 10.1093/sysbio/sys073

T. Stadler, Recovering speciation and extinction dynamics based on phylogenies, Journal of Evolutionary Biology, vol.213, issue.6, pp.1203-1219
DOI : 10.1111/jeb.12139

B. A. Surya, Evaluating Scale Functions of Spectrally Negative L??vy Processes, Journal of Applied Probability, vol.2, issue.01, pp.135-149, 2008.
DOI : 10.1023/B:JOTP.0000020481.14371.37

E. A. Thompson, Human evolutionary trees, 1975.

L. Van-valen, A new evolutionary law, Evol. Theory, vol.1, pp.1-30, 1973.