On the application of Valuation-Based Systems in the assessment of the probability bounds of Hazardous Material transportation accidents occurrence

Abstract : An important issue in Hazardous Material (hazmat) transportation risk assessment is to evaluate the probability bounds of accidents occurrence, whose values are difficult to be estimated due to its low frequency and the related lack of statistical data. This paper presents an original approach to integrate uncertainty in the quantitative analysis of hazmat transportation accidents. The proposed approach is based on the use of Valuation-Based Systems (VBSs) and belief functions theory. Furthermore, we propose to identify the factors for which the reduction of epistemic uncertainty (imprecision) gives the greatest impact on the uncertainty of the final results by using some proposed measures. The applicability and generality of the proposed approach is demonstrated on a case study.
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Safety Science, Elsevier, 2015, 72, pp.83-96. <10.1016/j.ssci.2014.08.006>
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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01260348
Contributeur : Mohamed Sallak <>
Soumis le : vendredi 22 janvier 2016 - 08:18:02
Dernière modification le : jeudi 4 février 2016 - 19:06:58

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Siqi Qiu, Roberto Sacile, Mohamed Sallak, Walter Schon. On the application of Valuation-Based Systems in the assessment of the probability bounds of Hazardous Material transportation accidents occurrence. Safety Science, Elsevier, 2015, 72, pp.83-96. <10.1016/j.ssci.2014.08.006>. <hal-01260348>

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