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Article Dans Une Revue Earth System Science Data Année : 2015

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Corinne Le Quéré (1) , Róisín Moriarty (1) , Robbie M. Andrew (2) , Josep G. Canadell (3) , Stephen Sitch (4) , Jan Ivar Korsbakken (2) , Pierre Friedlingstein (5) , Glen P. Peters (2) , R. J. Andres (6) , Thomas A. Boden (6) , Richard A. Houghton (7) , J. I. House (8) , Ralph F. Keeling (9) , Pieter P. Tans (10) , Almut Arneth (11) , Dorothee C. E. Bakker (12) , Leticia Barbero (13) , Laurent Bopp (14) , Jinfeng Chang (14) , Frédéric Chevallier (14, 15) , Louise P. Chini (16) , Philippe Ciais (14, 17) , M. Fader (18) , Richard A. Feely (19) , Thanos Gkritzalis (20) , Ian Harris (21) , Judith Hauck (22) , Tatiana Ilyina (23) , Atul K. Jain (24) , Etsushi Kato (25) , Vassilis Kitidis (26) , Kees Klein Goldewijk (27) , C. Koven (28, 25) , Peter Landschützer (29) , Siv K. Lauvset (30, 31) , Nathalie Lefèvre (32) , Andrew Lenton (33) , Ivan D. Lima (7) , Nicolas Metzl (34) , Frank J. Millero (35) , David R. Munro (36, 37) , Akihiko Murata (38) , Julia E. M. S. Nabel (23) , Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka (39) , Yukihiro Nojiri (28) , Kevin M. O'Brien (40) , Are Olsen (30, 31) , Tsuneo Ono (41) , Fiz F. Pérez (42) , Benjamin Pfeil (43) , Denis Pierrot (44) , Benjamin Poulter (14) , Gregor Rehder , Christian Rödenbeck (45) , Shu Saito (46) , Ute Schuster (4) , Jörg Schwinger (30, 31) , Roland Séférian (47) , Tobias Steinhoff (48) , Benjamin D. Stocker (49) , Adrienne J. Sutton (50, 19) , Taro Takahashi (51) , Bronte Tilbrook (52) , Ingrid T. van Der Laan-Luijkx (53) , Guido R. van Der Werf (54) , Steven M. A. C. van Heuven (55) , Doug Vandemark (56) , Nicolas Viovy (14, 57) , Andrew J. Wiltshire (58) , Sönke Zaehle (59) , N. Zeng (60)
1 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
2 CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
3 Oceans and Atmosphere Research
4 College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter]
5 University of Exeter
6 CDIAC - Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center [Oak Ridge]
7 WHOI - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
8 University of Bristol [Bristol]
9 SIO - UC San Diego - Scripps Institution of Oceanography
10 ESRL - NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
11 IMK-IFU - Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung
12 UEA - University of East Anglia [Norwich]
13 RSMAS - Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
14 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
15 SATINV - Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires
16 Department of Geographical Sciences
17 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
18 IMBE - Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale
19 PMEL - NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle]
20 Flanders Marine Institute
21 CRU - Climatic Research Unit [Norwich]
22 AWI - Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine
23 MPI-M - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
24 Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana]
25 IAE - Institute of Applied Energy
26 PML - Plymouth Marine Laboratory
27 PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
28 UFZ - Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
29 IBP - Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich]
30 BCCR - Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
31 GFI / BiU - Geophysical Institute [Bergen]
32 ABC - Austral, Boréal et Carbone
33 CSIRO - Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship
34 E-CO2 - Équipe CO2
35 Department of Ocean Sciences
36 ATOC - Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Boulder]
37 INSTAAR - Institute of Arctic Alpine Research [University of Colorado Boulder]
38 JAMSTEC - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
39 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
40 NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
41 AIST - National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology
42 Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas
43 UiB - University of Bergen
44 CIMAS - Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies
45 MPI-BGC - Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie
46 JMA - Japan Meteorological Agency
47 Météo-France
48 GEOMAR - Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel]
49 Imperial College London
50 JISAO - Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
51 LDEO - Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
52 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra]
53 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
54 FALW - Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam]
55 CIO - Centre for Isotope Research [Groningen]
56 Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory
57 MOSAIC - Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales
58 MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre
59 MPI-BGC - Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
60 AOSC - Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science [College Park]
Pierre Friedlingstein
Tatiana Ilyina
Etsushi Kato
Nathalie Lefèvre
Ivan D. Lima
Nicolas Metzl
Gregor Rehder
  • Fonction : Auteur
Roland Séférian
Sönke Zaehle

Résumé

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).
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hal-01245527 , version 1 (22-02-2016)

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Corinne Le Quéré, Róisín Moriarty, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, et al.. Global Carbon Budget 2015. Earth System Science Data, 2015, 7 (2), pp.349-396. ⟨10.5194/essd-7-349-2015⟩. ⟨hal-01245527⟩
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