The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty
Résumé
The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On April 1, 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two-week-long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw = 8.1 mainshock and a static slip model of the Mw= 7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding non-physical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and up-dip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the mainshock and the Mw = 7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.
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