Improved Bayesian Network Configurations for Probabilistic Identification of Degradation Mechanisms: Application to Chloride Ingress

Thanh-Binh Tran (1, 2) , Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga (1, 2) , Franck Schoefs (1, 2)

1 TRUST - Contrôle de santé fiabilité et calcul des structures
2 GeM - Institut de Recherche en Génie Civil et Mécanique

Probabilistic modelling of deterioration processes is an important task to plan and quantify maintenance operations of structures. Relevant material and environmental model parameters could be determined from inspection data; but in practice the number of measures required for uncertainty quantification is conditioned by time-consuming and expensive tests. The main objective of this paper is to propose a method based on Bayesian networks for improving the identification of uncertainties related to material and environmental parameters of deterioration models when there is limited available information. The outputs of the study are inspection configurations (in space and time) that could provide an optimal balance between accuracy and cost. The proposed methodology was applied to the identification of random variables for a chloride ingress model. It was found that there is an optimal discretisation for identifying each model parameter and that the combination of these configurations minimises identification errors. An illustration to the assessment of the probability of corrosion initiation showed that the approach is useful even if inspection data is limited.

Mots clés: Reliability & Risk Analysis; Identification; Bayesian network; Deterioration; Chlorides; Corrosion

Domaines: Génie civil; Matériaux

Thanh-Binh Tran, Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga, Franck Schoefs. Improved Bayesian Network Configurations for Probabilistic Identification of Degradation Mechanisms: Application to Chloride Ingress. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2015, pp.15. ⟨10.1080/15732479.2015.1086387⟩. ⟨hal-01201559⟩