Foresight on land use evolution using a coherent set of possible future land use change scenarios

Céline Ronfort (1) , Clementina Sebillotte (2) , Jean-Marc Meynard (3) , Véronique Souchère (1) , Philippe Martin (1)

1 SADAPT - Sciences pour l'Action et le Développement : Activités, Produits, Territoires
2 ALISS - Alimentation et sciences sociales
3 DEPT SAD - Département Sciences pour l'Action et le Développement

Changes in agricultural land use play a role in erosion and runoff evideneet in Upper Normandy, France Foresight methodology is a means to shape this role.We applied the SYSPAHMM (SYSTEM, Processus, Clusters of Hypotheses,Micro-scenarios) foresight methodology, at the local scale (Seine-Maritime), France and involving diverse actors in agriculture. Ites a three-step methodology with a 2015 time horizon. First, the system is graphically represented to describe its current functioning. Secondly, a set of hypotheses of future evolution is elaborated involving all factors potentially influencing land use. Thirdly,relation ships between the hypotheses are analysed to provide a coherent set of possible futures. A group of hypotheses leads to scenarios, a tool to evaluate the potential environmental consequences of agricultural land use changes.

Mots clés: SCENARIO; PROSPECTIVE; RUNOFF; SYSPHAMM; UPPER NORMANDY; SEINE MARITIME

Domaines: Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]

Céline Ronfort, Clementina Sebillotte, Jean-Marc Meynard, Véronique Souchère, Philippe Martin. Foresight on land use evolution using a coherent set of possible future land use change scenarios. 8. European International Farming Systems Association (IFSA) Symposium. Empowerment of the rural actors: A renewal of the farming systems perspective, Jul 2008, Clermont Ferrand, France. ⟨hal-01197679⟩