Scenario Development and Practical Decision Making under Uncertainty: Application to Requirements Engineering
Résumé
In this paper, we address the question of how flesh and blood decision makers manage the combinatorial explosion in scenario development for decision making under uncertainty. The first assumption is that the decision makers try to undertake ‘robust’ actions. For the decision maker a robust action is an action that has sufficiently good results whatever the events are. We examine the psychological as well as the theoretical problems raised by the notion of robustness. Finally, we address the false feeling of decision makers who talk of ‘risk control’. We argue that ‘risk control’ results from the thinking that one can postpone action after nature moves. This ‘action postponement’ amounts to changing look-ahead reasoning into diagnosis. We illustrate these ideas in the framework of software development and examine some possible implications for requirements analysis.