Statistical parameters as a means to a priori assess the accuracy of solar forecasting models

Abstract : In this paper we propose to determinate and to test a set ofstatistical parameters (20)to estimate the predictability of the global horizontal irradiation time series and thereby propose a new prospective tool indicating the expected error regardlessthe forecasting methodsa modeller can possibly implement. The mean absolute log return, which is a tool usually used in econometry, proves to be a very good estimator. Some examples of the use of this tool are exposed, showing the interest of this statistical parameter in concrete cases of predictions or optimizations.
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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01180041
Contributor : Cyril Voyant <>
Submitted on : Friday, July 24, 2015 - 8:16:30 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, April 16, 2019 - 8:52:05 PM
Long-term archiving on : Sunday, October 25, 2015 - 10:23:30 AM

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  • HAL Id : hal-01180041, version 1

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Cyril Voyant, Ted Soubdhan, Philippe Lauret, Mathieu David, Marc Muselli. Statistical parameters as a means to a priori assess the accuracy of solar forecasting models. Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, 2015, pp.1. ⟨hal-01180041⟩

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