Analysis of the robustness and recovery of critical infrastructures by Goal Tree Success Tree – Dynamic Master Logic Diagram, within a multi-state system-of-systems framework, in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

Elisa Ferrario (1) , Nicola Pedroni (1) , Enrico Zio (1, 2)

1 SSEC - Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF/ECP/Supélec
2 POLIMI - Politecnico di Milano [Milan]

In this paper, we look at the robustness and recovery of connected critical infrastructures (CIs) under a system-of-systems (SoS) framework taking into account i) the dependencies among the components of an individual CI and the interdependencies among different CIs; ii) the variability in component performance, by a multi-state model; iii) the epistemic uncertainty in the probabilities of transitions between different components states and in the mean values of the holding times distributions, by means of intervals. We adopt the Goal Tree Success Tree – Dynamic Master Logic Diagram (GTST-DMLD) for system modelling and perform the quantitative assessment by Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the approach by way of a simplified case study consisting of two interdependent infrastructures (electric power system and gas network) and a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system connected to the gas network.

Mots clés: critical infrastructures; electric power system; gas distribution network; SCADA; robustness; recovery time; multi-state; Goal Tree Success Tree – Dynamic Master Logic Diagram; Monte Carlo simulation; epistemic uncertainty; imprecise probability; interval analysis

Domaines: Energie électrique

Elisa Ferrario, Nicola Pedroni, Enrico Zio. Analysis of the robustness and recovery of critical infrastructures by Goal Tree Success Tree – Dynamic Master Logic Diagram, within a multi-state system-of-systems framework, in the presence of epistemic uncertainty. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering, 2015, 1 (3), pp.14. ⟨10.1115/1.4030439⟩. ⟨hal-01178292⟩