Drafting a risk modelling decision support scheme for pest risk analysts

Richard Baker (1) , Sarah Brunel (2) , Dominique Eyre (1) , Darren Kriticos (3) , David Makowski (4) , Philippe Reynaud (5) , Maxime Dupin (6, 7, 5) , Vojtěch Jarošík (8) , Christelle Robinet (6)

1 Food and Environment Research Agency
2 OEPP - Organisation Européenne et Méditerranéenne de Protection des Plantes
3 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra]
4 Agronomie
5 Laboratoire National de la Protection des Végétaux
6 URZF - Unité de recherche Zoologie Forestière
7 UMR PVBMT - Peuplements végétaux et bioagresseurs en milieu tropical
8 Institute of Botany

Risk mapping techniques play a critical role in pest risk analysis (PRA), helping to identify areas at greatest risk, justify appropriate measures and communicate risk. However, there is no existing guide to best practice that (a) helps the risk analyst decide whether it is appropriate to expend the time and resources required to undertake the modelling required to develop a risk map, (b) demonstrates the implications of choosing different climatic modelling and mapping methods for pests with differing ecologies and for which there is varying amounts of information on their climatic responses and distribution, (c) describes how to perform each technique and interpret the results and (d) shows how maps of climatic suitability can be linked with other datasets to map endangered areas. This presentation will outline the progress made in tackling these issues by PRATIQUE, a European funded research project that is addressing the major challenges faced by pest risk analysts.

Mots clés: invasive alien species; risk assessment; modelling; climatic model; data analysis; espèce exotique invasive

Domaines: Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]

Richard Baker, Sarah Brunel, Dominique Eyre, Darren Kriticos, David Makowski, et al.. Drafting a risk modelling decision support scheme for pest risk analysts. Pest risk in a changing world; 4. meeting of the International Pest Risk Modelling Workgroup, Aug 2010, Port Douglas, Australia. 1 p. ⟨hal-01173233⟩