Cause-of-Death Mortality: What Can Be Learned From Population Dynamics?

Séverine Arnold (1) , Alexandre Boumezoued (2) , Héloïse Labit Hardy (1) , Nicole El Karoui (2)

1 UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne
2 LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires

This paper analyses cause-of-death mortality changes and its impacts on the whole population evolution. The study combines cause-of-death analysis and population dynamics techniques. Our aim is to measure the impact of cause-of-death reduction on the whole population age structure, and more specifically on the depdendency ratio which is a crucial quantity for pay-as-you-go pension systems. Whereas previous studies on causes of death focused on mortality indicators such as survival curves or life expectancy, our approach provides additional information by including birth patterns. As an important conclusion, our numerical results based on French data show that populations with identical life expectancies can present important differences in their age pyramid resulting from different cause-specific mortality reductions. Sensitivities to fertility level and population flows are also given.

Mots clés: Cause-of-Death Mortality; Population Dynamics; Birth and Death Process; Individual-Based Model; Age Pyramid; Age Dependency Ra-tio; Macroscopic Behavior

Domaines: Sciences de l'Homme et Société; Démographie; Economies et finances

Séverine Arnold, Alexandre Boumezoued, Héloïse Labit Hardy, Nicole El Karoui. Cause-of-Death Mortality: What Can Be Learned From Population Dynamics?. 2015. ⟨hal-01157900⟩