The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

A. Jones (1) , J.M. Haywood (1, 2) , K. Alterskjær (3) , Olivier Boucher (4) , J.N.S. Cole (5) , C.L. Curry (6) , P.J. Irvine (7) , D. Ji (8) , B. Kravitz (9) , J. Egill Kristjánsson (3) , J.C. Moore (8) , U. Niemeier (10) , A. Robock (11) , H. Schmidt (10) , B. Singh (9) , S. Tilmes (12) , S. Watanabe (13) , J.-H. Yoon (9)

1 MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre
2 EMPS - College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter]
3 Department of Geosciences [Oslo]
4 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
5 CCCma - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
6 School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
7 IASS - Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies [Potsdam]
8 ESPRE - State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology
9 Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division
10 MPI-M - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
11 Department of Environmental Sciences
12 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
13 JAMSTEC - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentrations by a reduction of solar radiation, as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid increase in global-mean temperature following termination accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and decreases in sea-ice cover. There is no agreement on the impact of geoengineering termination on the rate of change of global-mean plant net primary productivity. There is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of temperature change following termination, with faster warming at high latitudes and over land. There is also considerable agreement regarding the distribution of reductions in Arctic sea-ice, but less so for the Antarctic. There is much less agreement regarding the patterns of change in precipitation and net primary productivity, with a greater degree of consensus at higher latitudes. Key Points Impacts of the abrupt termination of geoengineering are compared in 11 GCMsThe models agree on very rapid global-mean warming following terminationLevels of agreement vary on the geographic patterns of climatic change ©2013 Crown copyright. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. ©2013 American Geophysical Union. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

Domaines: Climatologie; Géologie appliquée

A. Jones, J.M. Haywood, K. Alterskjær, Olivier Boucher, J.N.S. Cole, et al.. The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2013, 118 (17), pp.9743-9752. ⟨10.1002/jgrd.50762⟩. ⟨hal-01105166⟩