Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Liquidity Trap with Inflation Persistence

Jean-Baptiste Michau (1)

1 X-DEP-ECO - Département d'Économie de l'École Polytechnique

This paper relies on the new Keynesian model with inflation persistence to characterize the optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a liquidity trap. It shows that, with a Phillips curve that is both forward and backward looking, the monetary policy that is implemented during a liquidity trap episode can lift the economy out of depression. The central bank does not need to commit beyond the end of the crisis to get some traction on the level of economic activity. Regarding fiscal policy, inflation persistence justifies some front-loading of government expenditures to get ination started, which reduces the real interest rate. The magnitude of the optimal fiscal stimulus is decreasing in the degree of inflation persistence. Finally, if inflation persistence is due to adaptive expectations, rather than to price indexation, then monetary policy is ineffective while the optimal fiscal stimulus is large and heavily front-loaded.

Mots clés: Commitment; Inflation persistence; Liquidity trap; Monetary and fiscal policy JEL Classification: E12; E52; E62; E63

Domaines: Economies et finances

Jean-Baptiste Michau. Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Liquidity Trap with Inflation Persistence. 2014. ⟨hal-01089192⟩