Phase-type aging modeling for health dependent costs

Abstract : In the present paper we develop recursive algorithms to evaluate the distribution of the net present value (abbreviated as "NPV") of a health care contract. The duration of the program is a random variable representing the lifetime of an individual. We suggest a discrete time phase-type approach to model individual health care costs. In this approach, annual health care costs depend naturally on the health state of the individual. We also derive the distribution of the NPV assuming that annual health care costs are iid random variables. We demonstrate analytically that, under special parametrisation, the model with iid costs gives a similar expectation of the NPV to the one of the model with health dependent costs. We propose techniques to evaluate the impact of health related events and demonstrate it on numerical examples.
Liste complète des métadonnées


https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01084274
Contributeur : Stéphane Loisel <>
Soumis le : mardi 18 novembre 2014 - 21:42:15
Dernière modification le : jeudi 31 décembre 2015 - 01:03:08
Document(s) archivé(s) le : jeudi 19 février 2015 - 12:25:22

Fichier

Govorun-Latouche-Loisel-hal.pd...
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-01084274, version 1

Collections

Citation

Maria Govorun, Guy Latouche, Stéphane Loisel. Phase-type aging modeling for health dependent costs. 2014. <hal-01084274>

Partager

Métriques

Consultations de
la notice

188

Téléchargements du document

449