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Calibration and improved prediction of computer models by universal Kriging

Abstract : This paper addresses the use of experimental data for calibrating a computer model and improving its predictions of the underlying physical system. A global statistical approach is proposed in which the bias between the computer model and the physical system is modeled as a realization of a Gaussian process. The application of classical statistical inference to this statistical model yields a rigorous method for calibrating the computer model and for adding to its predictions a statistical correction based on experimental data. This statistical correction can substantially improve the calibrated computer model for predicting the physical system on new experimental conditions. Furthermore, a quantification of the uncertainty of this prediction is provided. Physical expertise on the calibration parameters can also be taken into account in a Bayesian framework. Finally, the method is applied to the thermal-hydraulic code FLICA 4, in a single-phase friction model framework. It allows significant improvement of the predictions of FLICA 4.
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Contributor : Serena Benassù <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, July 8, 2014 - 11:58:47 AM
Last modification on : Saturday, March 28, 2020 - 2:24:32 AM

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Francois Bachoc, Guillaume Bois, Josselin Garnier, Jean-Marc Martinez. Calibration and improved prediction of computer models by universal Kriging. Nuclear Science and Engineering, Academic Press, 2014, 176 (1), pp.81-97. ⟨10.13182/NSE12-55⟩. ⟨hal-01020594⟩



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