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Calculating nuclear accident probabilities from empirical frequencies
Abstract : Since there is no authoritative, comprehensive and public historical record of nuclear power plant accidents, we reconstructed a nuclear accident data set from peer-reviewed and other literature. We found that, in a sample of five random years, the worldwide historical frequency of a nuclear major accident, defined as an INES level 7 event, is 14 %. The probability of at least one nuclear accident rated at level ≥4 on the INES scale is 67 %. These numbers are subject to uncertainties because of the fuzziness of the definition of a nuclear accident. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.
Keywords :
nuclear accidents
Cited literature [23 references]
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01018478
Contributor : Minh Ha-Duong Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Monday, July 21, 2014 - 2:29:10 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, April 6, 2022 - 3:12:07 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, November 24, 2014 - 9:06:00 PM
Contributor : Minh Ha-Duong Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Monday, July 21, 2014 - 2:29:10 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, April 6, 2022 - 3:12:07 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, November 24, 2014 - 9:06:00 PM
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