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Article Dans Une Revue Climatic Change Année : 2014

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

Detlef P. Van Vuuren
  • Fonction : Auteur
Elmar Kriegler
  • Fonction : Auteur
Brian C. O'Neill
  • Fonction : Auteur
Kristie L. Ebi
  • Fonction : Auteur
Keywan Riahi
Timothy R. Carter
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jae Edmonds
  • Fonction : Auteur
Tom Kram
  • Fonction : Auteur
Ritu Mathur
  • Fonction : Auteur
Harald Winkler
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

Dates et versions

hal-00991831 , version 1 (16-05-2014)

Identifiants

Citer

Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler, Brian C. O'Neill, Kristie L. Ebi, Keywan Riahi, et al.. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change, 2014, 122 (3), pp.373-386. ⟨10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1⟩. ⟨hal-00991831⟩
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