Numerical weather prediction or stochastic modeling: an objective criterion of choice for the global radiation forecasting

Cyril Voyant (1) , Gilles Notton (1) , Christophe Paoli (1) , Marie Laure Nivet (1) , Marc Muselli (1) , Kahina Dahmani (2)

1 SPE - Sciences pour l'environnement
2 LRIA - Laboratoire de Recherche en Intelligence Artificielle [Alger]

Numerous methods exist and were developed for global radiation forecasting. The two most popular types are the numerical weather predictions (NWP) and the predictions using stochastic approaches. We propose to compute a parameter noted  constructed in part from the mutual information which is a quantity that measures the mutual dependence of two variables. Both of these are calculated with the objective to establish the more relevant method between NWP and stochastic models concerning the current problem.

Mots clés: mutual information; stochastic; NWP; prediction

Domaines: Recherche d'information [cs.IR]

Cyril Voyant, Gilles Notton, Christophe Paoli, Marie Laure Nivet, Marc Muselli, et al.. Numerical weather prediction or stochastic modeling: an objective criterion of choice for the global radiation forecasting. International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 2014. ⟨hal-00934872⟩