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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2012

Markov analysis of land use dynamics: A Case Study in Madagascar

Résumé

We present a Markov model of a land-use dynamic along a forest corridor of Madagas- car. These geographic spots are of primary ecological and economic importance. We have a data set of 22 years on 42 plots, each plot can take four states. The initial state is removed and we use a Markov model with three states. A initial processing of data by the maximum likelihood approach leads to a model admitting an absorbing state. We study the quasi-stationary distribution law of the model and the law of the hitting time of the absorbing state. According to experts, a transition not present in the data, must be added in the model leading to a Bayesian approach to identify the model. We obtain a regular model admitting an invariant distribution law. We study the speed of convergence to equilibrium. Finally we analyze the two dynamics that have been identified, on a realistic time scale, leading to consistent results.
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Dates et versions

hal-00924077 , version 1 (06-01-2014)
hal-00924077 , version 2 (08-04-2016)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-00924077 , version 1

Citer

Fabien Campillo, Dominique Hervé, Angelo Raherinirina, Rivo Rakotozafy. Markov analysis of land use dynamics: A Case Study in Madagascar. Eleventh African Conference on Research in Computer Science and Applied Mathematics (CARI 2012), Algiers (Algeria), Oct 2012, Algiers, Algeria. ⟨hal-00924077v1⟩

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