Estimation of the transition density of a Markov chain

Mathieu Sart (1, 2)

1 LJAD - Laboratoire Jean Alexandre Dieudonné
2 PSPM - Probabilités, statistique, physique mathématique

We present two data-driven procedures to estimate the transition density of an homogeneous Markov chain. The first yields to a piecewise constant estimator on a suitable random partition. By using an Hellinger-type loss, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds for our estimator when the square root of the transition density belongs to possibly inhomogeneous Besov spaces with possibly small regularity index. Some simulations are also provided. The second procedure is of theoretical interest and leads to a general model selection theorem from which we derive rates of convergence over a very wide range of possibly inhomogeneous and anisotropic Besov spaces. We also investigate the rates that can be achieved under structural assumptions on the transition density.

Mots clés: Markov chain; Adaptive estimation; Model selection; Robust tests; Transition density

Domaines: Théorie [stat.TH]

Mathieu Sart. Estimation of the transition density of a Markov chain. Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincaré (B) Probabilités et Statistiques, 2014, 50 (3), pp.1028-1068. ⟨10.1214/13-AIHP551⟩. ⟨hal-00913768⟩