The global radiation forecasting based on NWP or stochastic modeling: an objective criterion of choice

Cyril Voyant (1) , Dahmani Kahina (2) , Gilles Notton (1) , Christophe Paoli (1) , Marie Laure Nivet (1) , Marc Muselli (1) , Pierrick Haurant (1)

1 SPE - Sciences pour l'environnement
2 Laboratoire de Thermodynamique et des Systèmes Energétiques

Numerous methods exist and were developed for global radiation forecasting. The two most popular types are the numerical weather predictions (NWP) and the predictions using stochastic approaches. This article presents a methodology for determining the best method to use, according to a rule related to the spatial resolution, temporal step and location. We propose to compute a parameter noted  constructed in part from the mutual information which is a quantity that measures the mutual dependence of two variables. Both of these are calculated with the objective to establish the more relevant method between NWP and stochastic models concerning the current problem.

Domaines: Recherche d'information [cs.IR]

Cyril Voyant, Dahmani Kahina, Gilles Notton, Christophe Paoli, Marie Laure Nivet, et al.. The global radiation forecasting based on NWP or stochastic modeling: an objective criterion of choice. first International Conference on Nanoelectronics, Communications and Renewable Energy (ICNCRE'13), Sep 2013, Algeria. ⟨hal-00848844⟩