Real-time air quality forecasting, part II: State of the science, current research needs, and future prospects
Résumé
The review of major 3-D global and regional real-time air quality forecasting (RT-AQF) models in Part I identifies several areas of improvement in meteorological forecasts, chemical inputs, and model treatments of atmospheric physical, dynamic, and chemical processes. Part II highlights several recent scientific advances in some of these areas that can be incorporated into RT-AQF models to address model deficiencies and improve forecast accuracies. Current major numerical, statistical, and computational techniques to improve forecasting skills are assessed. These include bias adjustment techniques to correct biases in forecast products, chemical data assimilation techniques for improving chemical initial and boundary conditions as well as emissions, and ensemble forecasting approaches to quantify the uncertainties of the forecasts. Several case applications of current 3-D RT-AQF models with the state-of-the-science model treatments, a detailed urban process module, and an advanced combined ensemble/data assimilation technique are presented to illustrate current model skills and capabilities. Major technical challenges and research priorities are provided. A new generation of comprehensive RT-AQF model systems, to emerge in the coming decades, will be based on state-of-the-science 3-D RT-AQF models, supplemented with efficient data assimilation techniques and sophisticated statistical models, and supported with modern numerical/computational technologies and a suite of real-time observational data from all platforms.