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Article Dans Une Revue Journal of High Energy Physics Année : 2011

Meaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties

Résumé

We consider the problem of assigning a meaningful degree of belief to uncertainty estimates of perturbative series. We analyse the assumptions which are implicit in the conventional estimates made using renormalisation scale variations. We then formulate a Bayesian model that, given equivalent initial hypotheses, allows one to characterise a perturbative theoretical uncertainty in a rigorous way in terms of a credibility interval for the remainder of the series. We compare its outcome to the conventional uncertainty estimates in the simple case of the calculation of QCD corrections to the e+e- -> hadrons process. We find comparable results, but with important conceptual differences. This work represents a first step in the direction of a more comprehensive and rigorous handling of theoretical uncertainties in perturbative calculations used in high energy phenomenology.

Dates et versions

hal-00727743 , version 1 (04-09-2012)

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Matteo Cacciari, Nicolas Houdeau. Meaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties. Journal of High Energy Physics, 2011, 1109, pp.039. ⟨10.1007/JHEP09(2011)039⟩. ⟨hal-00727743⟩
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