Breaking the sticks: a hierarchical change-point model 1 for estimating ontogenetic shifts with stable isotope 2 data

Matthieu Authier (1, 2) , Céline Martin (3) , Aurore Ponchon (3) , Stéphanie Steelandt (4, 3) , Ilham Bentaleb (3) , Christophe Guinet (1)

1 CEBC - Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé
2 École Doctorale Sciences pour l'Environnement Gay Lussac
3 UMR ISEM - Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier
4 CEFE - Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive

1. Stable isotopes are increasingly used in ecology to investigate ontogenetic shifts in foraging habitat (via 13C) and in trophic level (via 15N). These shifts are in essence an individual-level phenomenon, requiring repeated measures throughout the life of individuals, that is longitudinal data. Longitudinal data require in turn specifying an appropriate covariance structure. Here we present a hierarchical model to jointly investigate individual ontogenetic shifts in 13C and 15N values. 2. In a Bayesian framework, we used a Cholesky decomposition for estimating a moderately-sized covariance matrix, thereby directly estimating correlations between parameters describing time-series of isotopic measurements. We offer guidelines on how to select the covariance structure. 3. The approach is illustrated with a hierarchical change-point (or broken stick) model applied to a data set collected on Southern Elephant Seals, Mirounga leonina. Ontogenetic shifts in foraging habitat, following a juvenile and variable stage, were detected and interpreted as fidelity to a foraging strategy; while ontogenetic shifts in trophic level were more likely the result of complete independence from maternal resources followed by a gradual increase in trophic level as seals aged. 4. Specifying both an appropriate covariance and mean structure enabled us to draw strong inferences on the ecology of an elusive marine predator, and has wide applicability for isotopic ecology provided repeated isotopic measurements are available.

Mots clés: Bayesian methods; linear models; modelling; population ecology; statistics

Domaines: Sciences de l'environnement

Matthieu Authier, Céline Martin, Aurore Ponchon, Stéphanie Steelandt, Ilham Bentaleb, et al.. Breaking the sticks: a hierarchical change-point model 1 for estimating ontogenetic shifts with stable isotope 2 data. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2012, 3 (2), pp.281-390. ⟨10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00162.x⟩. ⟨hal-00627200⟩