Statistical study of Caribbean seismic events

Larissa Valmy (1) , Jean Vaillant (1)

1 LAMIA - Laboratoire de Mathématiques Informatique et Applications

Calculation of seismic risks in a zone are based on stochastic models describing at best the seismic activity. Our focus is the spatio-temporal evolution of the probability of earthquake occurrences. The main modelling tool is the theory of the point processes. We discuss about the spatio-temporal extension of ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) with marks and study the properties of the log-likelihood and the maximum likelihood estimators. Seismic data from the Lesser Antilles Arc carried out between 1999 and 2004 are analyzed.

Mots clés: Spatio-temporel point process; ETAS model; maximum likelihood estimator

Domaines: Statistiques [math.ST]; Théorie [stat.TH]

Larissa Valmy, Jean Vaillant. Statistical study of Caribbean seismic events. 2011 Annual meeting of the SSC, Jun 2011, Wolfville, Canada. pp.P. 134. ⟨hal-00601513⟩