Insurance and Meteors Fall: Proposal of a Methodology for Estimating the Risk and Modelling Consequences for the Insurance Sector in France
Résumé
In parallel to the action of States and international organizations, the insurance sector is one that contributes to the resilience of human societies against the occurrence of natural disasters such as weather events, seismic ones and other ones. The action principle of this sector is characterized by at least three mechanisms: prevention for concerned people, compensation and portfolios reinsurance. The risk of meteor fall is not valued appropriately by this sector yet. However, our planet receives meteors every day, some of which could cause significant damages on urban areas or economic ones (industrial, shopping centres, recreation places etc.). From the analysis of the data concerning the asteroids that have impacted the Earth and which have a likelihood to do so, we present here a methodology to estimate the damages resulting from the impact of objects of sizes up to the maximum threshold for regional damages (a few hundreds of meters) on some given territory. The French territory is chosen as an example because we can describe its area with the appropriate spatial databases (population density, building location etc.). This approach is based on an initial definition phase of collision scenarios. Then, a second phase consists in the accurate modelling of the territory taking into account the land-use, the spatial distribution of insurance company stakes, and the characterization of the biophysical vulnerability of the stakes using thresholds of dangerous phenomena (overpressures, thermal radiations etc.). The third phase is related to the impact simulation on the territory and the estimation of the stakes potentially exposed.